USD/JPY

Dollar a spectator to China news, yen ponders rate risks

The dollar held steady on the yuan on Tuesday as markets digested a welter of policy statements out of China, while a rebound in Tokyo inflation seemed to take Japan a step closer to the end of negative interest rates.

There was more action in bitcoin, which gained 1.2% to $68,341 after surging more than 7% on Monday. The blockchain asset has benefited from flows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds, most notably in the United States.

Early news out of China's National People's Congress (NPC) contained few surprised with Beijing sticking with an economic growth target of 5% and a budget deficit of 3%.

Analysts say meeting the target will be a challenge as a protracted property crisis, low consumption, slow global growth and geopolitical tensions drag on activity.

The Japanese yen held steady after data showed Tokyo core inflation sped up to 2.5% in February, from 1.8% the previous month. The measure excluding food and energy did slow to 3.1%, but stayed above the Bank of Japan's 2% target.

Many analysts expect rates to rise to zero in April after Japan's wage round ends.

The dollar was a fraction lower at 150.44 yen , having again shied away from resistance around 150.85, which has capped the currency for more than three months now.

A break higher would open the way to November's top at 151.92, but would also run the risk of provoking Japanese intervention to buy the yen.

Markets currently imply around a 64% chance the Federal Reserve will start cutting U.S. rates in June and ease by around 75 basis points this year.

The euro idled at $1.0853 , having tested resistance around $1.0866. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, was unchanged at 103.840.

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds a meeting on Thursday and markets are convinced it will keep rates at 4.0%. Futures imply an 88% probability that cuts will start in June and have priced in 89 basis points of easing for 2024.

Sterling steadied at $1.2692 ahead of the British budget on Wednesday. Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has been trying to dampen speculation about big pre-election tax cuts.

Source: Reuters

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