OIL

Oil Returns to Losses as Market Concerns Over Trade War Persist

Oil extended a volatile run as investors assessed abrupt shifts in US trade policy, with futures returning to losses following a relief rally on Wednesday. 

Brent fell near $64 a barrel after a choppy session that saw prices hit a four-year low before ultimately posting the biggest one-day gain since October.

With markets in turmoil, President Donald Trump announced a 90-day halt on higher tariffs against dozens of nations, but he also raised duties on China to 125%.

"With a lot of uncertainty still existing, the prospect for a major rebound in crude is not possible at this stage when the market has to deal with the risk of weakening demand and rising production from OPEC," said Ole Hansen, head of commodities strategy at Saxo Bank. "We are still looking at the worst tariffs since the 1930s."

Oil prices are dramatically lower compared to the start of the month as the aggressive US tariff push sparked warnings of a global recession that would depress energy demand. 

At the same time, the OPEC+ alliance committed to loosening output curbs at a faster pace that expected, spurring concerns about a bigger global glut.

Kazakhstan, which has repeatedly exceeded its production limits, is again holding negotiations with oil companies on cutting output to comply with its quota, according to Interfax.

China is the largest oil importer, and the higher US levies may weigh on the nation's consumption of fuels and petrochemicals.

Even before Trump's return to the White House, usage of gasoline and diesel had been contracting, in part because of a drawn-out property crisis, and in part because of the spread of electric vehicles and renewables.

In a reflection of the nation's deep-seated economic challenges, data earlier on Thursday showed that consumer deflation extended for a second month in March, while factory deflation persisted for a 30th month. 

Source: Bloomberg

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