MARKET UPDATE

Market Review Thursday, March 14, 2024

Nikkei

Japanese stocks climbed for the first time in four days as energy and mining companies rose on higher commodity prices. Investors continue to assess whether the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates for the first time since 2007.

Topix rose 0.5% to 2,661.59 as of 3 p.m. close in Tokyo. Nikkei 225 advanced 0.3% to 38,807.38.

Lasertec contributed the most to the Topix's gain, increasing 4.1%. Out of 2,150 stocks in the index, 1,595 rose and 477 fell, while 78 were unchanged.

Focus remains on the BOJ's meeting next week and the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Japan's central bank is considering scrapping its purchases of ETFs, a measure introduced in 2010, should price goals come into sight, according to people familiar with the matter.

Hang Seng

Hong Kong stocks closed lower Thursday for a second day following a recent healthy run-up, with attention now on the release of US data due later in the day, including on producer prices.

The Hang Seng Index dropped 0.71 percent, or 120.45 points, to 16,961.66.

The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.18 percent, or 5.60 points, to 3,038.23, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange retreated 0.59 percent, or 10.47 points, to 1,758.10.

Gold

Gold prices settled lower on Thursday as the dollar and bond yields climbed as yet another US inflation measure ran hotter than expected last month.

Gold for April delivery closed down US$13.30 to settle at US$2,167.50 per ounce.

The drop comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the US Producer Price Index rose 1.6% annualized in February, up from a revised 1% rate in January and well ahead of expectations for a 1.1% rise, while the core rate rose 0.3% from January, ahead of the consensus estimate for a 0.2% rise, according to Marketwatch.

The report is the latest to show US inflation is not quickly returning to the Federal Reserve's 2% target after the Consumer Price Index rose more than expected last month. The data is dashing hopes for speedy rate cuts from the central bank, whose policy committee will meet next week with no change to current rates expected.

The dollar rose following the data, with the ICE dollar index was last seen up 0.56 points to 103.35.

Treasury yields also climbed, bearish for gold since it offers no interest. The US two-year note was last seen paying 4.702%, up 6.1 basis points, while the yield on the 10-year note was up 10.5 basis points 4.299%.

Oil

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at a four-month high on Thursday after the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2024 oil-demand forecast, cut its supply outlook and said it expects global inventories to tighten for the entire year due to continuing production cuts from OPEC+.

WTI crude oil closed up US$1.54 to settle at US$81.26 per barrel, the highest since Nov.6, while May Brent crude, the global benchmark, was last seen up US$1.47 to US$85.50.

In its influential Monthly Oil Market Report, the IEA raised its 2024 demand forecast to 1.3-million barrels above 2023 levels, an increase of 110,000 bpd from its February outlook, while seeing only a 0.8-million barrels per day rise in global oil production due to the 2.2-million bpd voluntary production cuts from OPEC+ that the cartel extended to the end of the second quarter and the agency assumes will continue through year end. If the cuts continue through 2024, global inventories will fall through the year, but could begin to rise if lifted at the end of June.

The agency's demand forecast is near an estimate from the Energy Information Administration's outlook for a 1.43-million bpd rise in 2024 demand released earlier this week, while OPEC said it expects demand to climb by 2.25-million bpd.

However gains from the IEA's bullish forecast could be limited after another US inflation measure ran hotter than expected last month. The Producer Price Index rose 1.6% annualized in February, up from a revised 1% rate in January and well ahead of expectations for a 1.1% rise, while the core rate rose 0.3% from January, ahead of the consensus estimate for a 0.2% rise, according to Marketwatch.

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